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      特斯拉股价猛增,但对股东有何意义?

      特斯拉股价猛增,但对股东有何意义?

      SHAWN TULLY 2021年10月11日
      特斯拉的问题在于,即使它取得了辉煌的成功,它也永远为股东提供回报。

      在资本市场的史册中,牛市从未使人们像对去年特斯拉股价的大幅上涨(相对其规模来说)一样,对公司未来业绩的期望如此之高。您是否相信,自2020年10月初以来,该电动汽车制造商的大胆创新计划实际上要求其创造1,000亿美元的额外利润,克服其一年前所面临的困难(那时其市值低得多),并在未来十年为投资者提供可观的回报?长期以来,特斯拉的问题在于,即使它取得了辉煌的成功,它也永远无法以惊人的表现为股东冒着最大风险下的赌注提供回报,因为它的估值太高了。即使经历了年中的大幅下跌之后,购买特斯拉股票仍不划算,但新的股价猛涨起着决定性的作用。其实质上保证了它的超级粉丝对这个伟大的公司定价过高,且定价过高的程度如此之大,以至于特斯拉股票成为一项糟糕的投资。

      2020年10月7日——正好一年前——特斯拉股价收于425美元。由于其大约发行10亿股股票,就像今天一样,因此其市值达4,250亿美元。我们假设,投资者和基金希望每年获得10%的回报,以弥补特斯拉股价的极端波动性,以及其太阳能和电池业务极有可能无法提供使其盈利能力超过任何汽车制造商所需的额外收益的情况。由于特斯拉不支付股息,且可能需要保留其所有收益,以实现高速增长,因此所有的收益将不得不源自股票价格的不断上涨。从一年前来看,如果特斯拉的股价在接下来的10年里上涨160%,达到1,105美元,那么它的回报率就可能突破10%大关。我们再假设,即使在一个快速增长期之后,投资者仍然会将特斯拉评价为“超速驾驶者”,并授予它30倍的溢价/市盈率。由此简单计算可得,十年后,它需要每年赚370亿美元。

      简单来说,我们假设特斯拉的起始利润与上一季度按年率计算的利润相同,大约为30亿美元(减去出售即将到期的碳排放信用额度所得的收入,并调整税率)。为了达到这个目标,特斯拉的利润需要每年增长28%左右。在这种“成功”取得利润的情况下,它在这10年的收益将达1,480亿美元。每年,特斯拉需要创造比盈利颇丰的美国银行(Bank of America)多三分之一的利润,但是该利润仍远低于微软(Microsoft)或苹果(Apple)创造的数额。

      特斯拉最近的反弹大大提高了这个标准。10月7日,该公司股价自2月份以来首次突破800美元,使其估值飙升至8,000亿美元。现在特斯拉必须跑得更快才能取得同样的两位数回报率。其市值仍需从高得多的基数上调160%,2031年10月达到2.1万亿美元(股价为每股2,100美元)。以相同的30倍的溢价倍数计算,其利润将达到700亿美元。这比微软当下赚得的(620亿美元)还要多,且相当于苹果过去四个季度利润的80%(868亿美元),这是一家非政府赞助的市场参与者有史以来的最高利润总额。一路走来,特斯拉的利润将从我们的30亿美元基数每年增长37%。这比一年前其市值为4,250亿美元时的28%的增长要求快了整整9个百分点。

      特斯拉将需要创造总计2,480亿美元的净收入。这比去年的1,480亿美元高出三分之二。现在特斯拉必须比去年10月的盈利额多赚1亿美元才能夺冠。即使特斯拉一举夺魁,超越所有其他汽车制造商,对特斯拉的投资也不会得到回报,而且几乎所有高价股票都是如此。

      事实上,更有可能出现的结果是,其2031年10月的市值与今天相同。在这种情况下,特斯拉的市盈率会低得多,因为它不会接近前两个例子中假设的增长。但假设其市盈率大约在25倍左右。到2031年,特斯拉仍然需要每年赚320亿美元才能达到今天的售价。仅仅持平就需要将利润扩大10倍,即每年25%左右。

      这种新的过度乐观主义使特斯拉对投资者来说进退维谷。尽管故事听起来很棒,愿景很迷人,首席执行官是个超级巨星,但最终,重要的是数字。从数字来看,发财的机会流向了那些在几年前买入的人,并很有可能使大批新的买进者失望。(财富中文网)

      翻译:郝秀

      审校:汪皓

      在资本市场的史册中,牛市从未使人们像对去年特斯拉股价的大幅上涨(相对其规模来说)一样,对公司未来业绩的期望如此之高。您是否相信,自2020年10月初以来,该电动汽车制造商的大胆创新计划实际上要求其创造1,000亿美元的额外利润,克服其一年前所面临的困难(那时其市值低得多),并在未来十年为投资者提供可观的回报?长期以来,特斯拉的问题在于,即使它取得了辉煌的成功,它也永远无法以惊人的表现为股东冒着最大风险下的赌注提供回报,因为它的估值太高了。即使经历了年中的大幅下跌之后,购买特斯拉股票仍不划算,但新的股价猛涨起着决定性的作用。其实质上保证了它的超级粉丝对这个伟大的公司定价过高,且定价过高的程度如此之大,以至于特斯拉股票成为一项糟糕的投资。

      2020年10月7日——正好一年前——特斯拉股价收于425美元。由于其大约发行10亿股股票,就像今天一样,因此其市值达4,250亿美元。我们假设,投资者和基金希望每年获得10%的回报,以弥补特斯拉股价的极端波动性,以及其太阳能和电池业务极有可能无法提供使其盈利能力超过任何汽车制造商所需的额外收益的情况。由于特斯拉不支付股息,且可能需要保留其所有收益,以实现高速增长,因此所有的收益将不得不源自股票价格的不断上涨。从一年前来看,如果特斯拉的股价在接下来的10年里上涨160%,达到1,105美元,那么它的回报率就可能突破10%大关。我们再假设,即使在一个快速增长期之后,投资者仍然会将特斯拉评价为“超速驾驶者”,并授予它30倍的溢价/市盈率。由此简单计算可得,十年后,它需要每年赚370亿美元。

      简单来说,我们假设特斯拉的起始利润与上一季度按年率计算的利润相同,大约为30亿美元(减去出售即将到期的碳排放信用额度所得的收入,并调整税率)。为了达到这个目标,特斯拉的利润需要每年增长28%左右。在这种“成功”取得利润的情况下,它在这10年的收益将达1,480亿美元。每年,特斯拉需要创造比盈利颇丰的美国银行(Bank of America)多三分之一的利润,但是该利润仍远低于微软(Microsoft)或苹果(Apple)创造的数额。

      特斯拉最近的反弹大大提高了这个标准。10月7日,该公司股价自2月份以来首次突破800美元,使其估值飙升至8,000亿美元。现在特斯拉必须跑得更快才能取得同样的两位数回报率。其市值仍需从高得多的基数上调160%,2031年10月达到2.1万亿美元(股价为每股2,100美元)。以相同的30倍的溢价倍数计算,其利润将达到700亿美元。这比微软当下赚得的(620亿美元)还要多,且相当于苹果过去四个季度利润的80%(868亿美元),这是一家非政府赞助的市场参与者有史以来的最高利润总额。一路走来,特斯拉的利润将从我们的30亿美元基数每年增长37%。这比一年前其市值为4,250亿美元时的28%的增长要求快了整整9个百分点。

      特斯拉将需要创造总计2,480亿美元的净收入。这比去年的1,480亿美元高出三分之二。现在特斯拉必须比去年10月的盈利额多赚1亿美元才能夺冠。即使特斯拉一举夺魁,超越所有其他汽车制造商,对特斯拉的投资也不会得到回报,而且几乎所有高价股票都是如此。

      事实上,更有可能出现的结果是,其2031年10月的市值与今天相同。在这种情况下,特斯拉的市盈率会低得多,因为它不会接近前两个例子中假设的增长。但假设其市盈率大约在25倍左右。到2031年,特斯拉仍然需要每年赚320亿美元才能达到今天的售价。仅仅持平就需要将利润扩大10倍,即每年25%左右。

      这种新的过度乐观主义使特斯拉对投资者来说进退维谷。尽管故事听起来很棒,愿景很迷人,首席执行官是个超级巨星,但最终,重要的是数字。从数字来看,发财的机会流向了那些在几年前买入的人,并很有可能使大批新的买进者失望。(财富中文网)

      翻译:郝秀

      审校:汪皓

      In the annals of capital markets, a bull run has never raised expectations higher for a company's future performance—relative to its size—than Tesla's rampage in the past year. Would you believe that the EV maker's moonshot since early October 2020 virtually mandates that it deliver $100 billion in additional profits, over and above the hurdle at its much lower price a year ago, to hand investors a decent return in the decade ahead? Tesla’s problem has long been that even if it succeeds brilliantly, its valuation was so gigantic that it could never perform stupendously enough to reward shareholders for making the riskiest of bets. After a stiff decline in midyear that still made it far from a good buy, its new leap is the clincher. It virtually guarantees that its superfans have overpriced a great company to the point where it makes for a bad investment.

      On Oct. 7, 2020—exactly one year ago—Tesla closed at $425, and since it had about 1 billion shares outstanding, just as today, its market cap stood at $425 billion. Let's assume that folks and funds want a 10% annual return to compensate for Tesla's extreme volatility, and for the excellent possibility that its solar and battery businesses won't deliver the extra juice needed to make its profitability multiples that of any carmaker ever. Since Tesla doesn't pay a dividend and will probably need to retain all of its earnings to grow at a rubber-burning clip, all of the gains would have to come from a rising stock price. A year ago, Tesla could have hit the 10% mark if its stock rose 160% to $1,105 over the following 10 years. Let's also assume that even after a huge growth phase, investors would still rate Tesla a speedster and award it a premium price/earnings multiple of 30. By simple math, it would need to be earning $37 billion a year a decade hence.

      To keep it simple, we'll assume that Tesla starts with the same approximately $3 billion profits that it posted on an annualized basis in the past quarter (subtracting sales of regulatory credits that will expire soon, and adjusting the tax rate). To hit the target, Tesla would need to grow its profits around 28% a year. In that "success" scenario, its earnings over those 10 years would amount to $148 billion. On an annual basis, Tesla would need to make about one-third more than highly profitable Bank of America garners today, but far less than the numbers posted by Microsoft or Apple.

      Tesla’s recent rebound has enormously raised that bar. On Oct. 7, its shares crossed $800 for the first time since February, hiking its valuation to $800 billion. Now Tesla must race far faster to capture the same double-digit trophy. Its cap would still need to wax by 160% from a much higher base, reaching $2.1 trillion in October 2031 (at a share price of $2,100). At the same premium multiple of 30, its profits would hit $70 billion. That's more than Microsoft ($62 billion) makes today and equals 80% of Apple's profits over the past four quarters ($86.8 billion), the highest total ever recorded by a non-government-sponsored player. Along the way, Tesla's earnings would be growing from our $3 billion base by 37% a year. That's a full nine points faster than the 28% requirement when its market cap was $425 billion 12 months ago.

      Along the way, Tesla would need to generate $248 billion in total net earnings. That exceeds last year's $148 billion bogey by two-thirds. Now Tesla must make $100 million more to sweep the prize than the winning number last October. An investment in Tesla won't pay off even if it laps the field of all the other automakers, and just about every high-flier.

      In fact, a more likely outcome is that its market cap is the same in October 2031 as it is today. In that case, Tesla's P/E would be much lower because it wouldn't be nearly the grower posited in our two earlier examples. But say its multiple stood at around the market average of 25. Tesla would still need to be making $32 billion a year by 2031 to be worth what it's selling for today. Just flatlining would require expanding profits 10-fold, or around 25% a year.

      The new over-over-optimism has put Tesla in a no-win bind for investors. The story sounds great, the vision is enthralling, the CEO is a superstar. But in the end, it's the math that counts. And the math says that the bonanza went to those who bought in years ago—and promises disappointment for the legions of new believers.

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